Wahlgeographie und Sozialraumanalyse - Das Beispiel Wien

Abstract

The present study demonstrates how the spatial structure of voting behaviour in cities can be derived from the social area structure. The authors adopt an electoral-ecological approach, emphasizing the interdependence of theory, empirical testing and methodology. Vienna (Austria) was selected for case study. The study was based on the percentage of votes received by the three parties with seats in the City Council in 1973 (SPO about 60 p.a, OVP about 30 p.a, FPO about 8 p.a) and on 24 indicators taken from the1971 census on population and residential structure. The identical small-area base was used (219 census tracts with an average of 7400 inhabitants and 5500 electors). The spatial distribution of the parties (determined by principal component analysis) may be represented by one bipolar dimension. One pole indicates the dominance of the Socialists, the other that of the Conservative and Liberal Parties. An ideal-typical model shows the spatial voting pattern as a concentric pattern formed by a Conservative/Liberal core area, a neutral intermediate zone, a Socialist ring and a Conservative/Liberal outer zone. This spatial pattern is explained by the links with the 24 social indicators and the 3 social area dimensions derived by means of principal components analysis, all of which vary in their effect on voting behaviour. Owing to the fact that Vienna demonstrates specific deviations from the social area structure generally accepted by social ecology, only the (highly significant) link with social segregation can be substantiated. The anomalous occurrence of two other dimensions - urbanization/family status and residential-/population-dynamics instead of family status and ethnic status - had to be considered separately. On the basis of these three dimensions, Vienna's 219 census tracts are classified by cluster analysis into 6 social area types. Finally, the effect of the latter on 7 electoral area types is investigated.