Räumliche Simulation in der Diffusionsforschung. Am Beispiel der Simulationsmodellierung der räumlichen Diffusion von Agrarinnovationen in der polnischen Landwirtschaft

Abstract

The study presented describes the result arrived at by the author in his research on the spatial diffusion of agricultural innovations in Poland. The subject under examination is the diffusion of modern livestock buildings among peasant farmers in Southern Wielkopolska between 1967-1975. The study aims at a reconstruction of this process and at an understanding of its mechanism in a spatio-temporal approach. This aim has been realized within the framework of the wave-model of innovation diffusion using the Monte Carlo simulation model. The article presents the successive stages of simulation modelling, from the identification of spatial dependences of the observed diffusion process, through the formulation of the rules of a stochastic model and a simulation of the spatial patterns of diffusion for two model approaches, to the determination of the adequacy and the evaluation of the simulation experiments carried out.